A  POWERFUL  AND  VERSATILE  INTERNET  BASED
GLOBAL  DISASTER  WARNING  AND  RESPONSE  SYSTEM

A Demonstration Earthquake Forecasting Program

Latest Update:  October 16, 2011

       This report describes a proposed, extremely powerful, versatile, and cost-effective Internet based System or program that could provide governments and disaster response groups around the world with the ability to determine when accidents and major disasters might be about to occur, to quickly and efficiently determine when they had actually occurred, and to effectively prepare for and respond to them.

       The accidents and disasters that this system could deal with would range from relatively minor traffic accidents and residential fires to major earthquakes, tornados, floods, hurricanes, and global epidemics.

       Parts of this proposed disaster warning and response system are already in use by organizations such as the United Nations, the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and numerous large U.S. cities and other cities around the world through their 911 type telephone number based emergency response systems.


HOW  THIS  PROPOSED  DISASTER  WARNING
AND  RESPONSE  SYSTEM  WOULD  WORK

The Flow Chart - While reading this report, site visitors can refer to the “Flow Chart” drawing shown below to see how different parts of the proposed System would function and be linked together.  Parts of the System that appear in that Flow Chart are underlined.  The complete System is referred to in this report as the “System.”

The Heart Of The System - The heart of this proposed Disaster Warning and Response System would be a group of Internet Computer Programs that were running on computers around the world.  Some of those computers would be directly connected to the Internet at all times.  Others might connect with the Internet only after certain types of disasters occurred.

Data And Computer Program Storage - The Internet was designed to keep running even after some of its computers and communications resources in a particular area were incapacitated by a disaster.  The most important System computer programs would be running at the same time on computers in numerous locations around the world.  And some of the important Hazard and Warning Data would be stored at multiple locations.

       In the event of a disaster such as an earthquake which knocked out the computers and communications facilities in some area, System computers in other locations around the world would automatically take over the work which was being done by the computers in the affected areas.

Hazard Data Submission - Through various Communication Networks that would include telephone call types of communications, Internet Web site data entry forms, and E-mail notes, information regarding natural and man-made hazards around the world would continuously be submitted to the computer programs in the System.  Those data would be submitted by innumerable professional and amateur Data Collectors living in every country.  They would include government agency employees, disaster mitigation group personnel, weather forecasters, and private citizens.

       The computer programs would store the Hazard Data on computer disks and tapes etc. and make them available to the appropriate disaster mitigation officials.  A certain percentage of those data would also be available to the general public though Warning And Hazard Data Displays that would include Internet Web Sites and News Services such as newspapers and television and radio stations.

Linking Data Collectors With The Internet - The Data Collectors would submit their information to the System by:

--- Directly linking to the Internet through their home or office computers or their cell telephones etc.

--- Indirectly linking to the Internet through Internet Relay Personnel.

       Internet Relay Personnel would be people who could be at home or in their work offices and have a computer running that was connected to the Internet.

       Internet Relay Personnel would receive information from the Data Collectors via Landline and Cellular Telephones and Citizen Band (CB) and Ham Radios etc.  And they would submit the Data Collector data to the System by entering it on their home and office computers.  When the System asked them to obtain additional information from the Data Collectors the Internet Relay Personnel would do that.  Internet Relay Personnel would also send disaster response instructions they received from the System to disaster Responders with whom they were communicating.

Anticipating Disasters - The System would continuously evaluate incoming Hazard Data.  And when the System determined that a disaster might be about to occur it would automatically notify appropriate disaster mitigation personnel.  For example, if the System became aware that unusually large amounts of rain had fallen in some area over a relatively short period of time it would warn appropriate parties that floods and mudslides might pose a threat.

Disaster Warning Data Submission - When an accident or major disaster occurred, Data Collectors would immediately begin sending information regarding it to the System in the same ways that they sent it their Hazard Data.  Those Warning Data would also be stored on computer disks and tapes etc. and be made available immediately to disaster mitigation officials and to a limited extent to the general public.

Responding To Disasters - When the System became aware that a disaster had occurred it would immediately use both the incoming Warning Data and previously stored Hazard Data to generate timely and sophisticated response plans.  For example, if a commercial passenger jet crashed in the center of a large city the System response plan steps might include the following:

EXAMPLE: SYSTEM RESPONSE TO A COMMERCIAL JET CRASH IN A LARGE CITY

--- Data Collectors such as the police and private citizens who observed the plane crash would be immediately asked to submit as much information to the System as they could provide regarding when and where the plane crashed and how bad the situation in that area appeared to be.  Some of the Data Collectors might also be asked by the System to go to certain locations and collect and submit additional information.  That would enable the System to make a preliminary determination regarding what type of response would be needed.

--- The System would use stored information regarding the population density and types of buildings in the area of the crash site to estimate how much damage might have been done.

--- The System would immediately notify Responders such as hospitals, fire and police departments, and aviation groups with helicopters located in the affected area that they should get ready to respond to the disaster and also provide them with a preliminary report on its expected severity.

--- Other Responders such as blood banks around the world and disaster response organizations such as the International Red Cross would immediately be sent notices alerting them to the fact that they might need to quickly send supplies to hospitals and emergency workers in the disaster area.

--- Airline companies and airports in the area would be automatically contacted by the System and asked for information regarding what type of aircraft was involved in the crash, how many passengers were on the plane, information regarding the identities of those passengers, how much fuel the plane might have had onboard at the time of the crash, its point of origin, its destination, its most likely direction, altitude and speed before the crash, and the nature of any hazardous materials in its cargo bay.

--- The System would automatically attempt to make telephone calls etc. to Responders that it had listed in its files as likely being in or near the disaster area.  They would include specially trained civilian Civil Defense personnel who were at home or at work in nearby stores and offices.

       Responders who were contacted would be asked to collect and submit as much information regarding the crash as possible.  They might also be asked to perform certain tasks such as blocking traffic on specific streets at certain times so that emergency vehicles could travel on them at a high rate of speed without being concerned about hitting other vehicles.  When the Responders were in their assigned locations along those streets they would let the System know that by communicating with it via cellular telephones or special radios.

--- As more and more information regarding the plane crash became available to it, the System would generate increasingly detailed response plans.  For example, ambulance drivers and helicopter pilots would be instructed to take crash victims with certain types of injuries such as severe burns or major trauma to the disaster area hospitals that were best equipped to deal with those specific types of injuries.  Government agencies and disaster response groups would be told how much food, clothing, temporary shelter, and medical supplies etc. would be needed, and when they would be needed.  Appeals for blood and relief funds etc. would also be sent to news services.

--- During the course of the response to the disaster, Response Approval Personnel working for the United Nations, government agencies, and disaster mitigation groups which were part of the System Administration would constantly monitor the disaster response plans being generated by the System.

       When necessary, Administration personnel would approve response plans steps before they were implemented.  Also when necessary they would block certain steps or direct the System to make adjustments to them.  The System would then immediately change its response plans to the extent that that was appropriate and necessary.

Improving System Performance - On a regular basis, with relatively minor traffic accidents for example, and shortly after major disasters, the response plans that were generated by the System would be evaluated.  And adjustments would be made to the System’s disaster response generation computer programs so that they would perform even better when the next accident or disaster of that type occurred.

       The System could also be run in a “Practice Mode” by System Administration personnel.  That would involve feeding it data regarding some hypothetical accident or disaster.  The System would then generate and submit to itself the types of data that it would expect to receive from the Data Collectors if such an accident or disaster were to actually occur.  And it would generate response plans and send instructions to hypothetical Responders.

       Through the use of that “Practice Mode” System Administration personnel would be able to determine how well the System would perform if a real disaster of that type were to occur.  Potential weaknesses in the System’s response generating computer programs could be identified.  And improvements would be made to correct those weaknesses.


ADDITIONAL  DETAILS
SYSTEM  ADMINISTRATION

       In an ideal world this proposed Disaster Warning And Response System could be created and run by the United Nations with some assistance from government agencies and disaster mitigation groups.  Unfortunately, we do not live in an ideal world.  And for a number of reasons including the following ones it would be necessary to have outside, private and in some cases completely independent organizations work within the System Administration structure.  The United Nations would run as much of the System as possible.  Other groups would try to manage those parts of the System that the U.N. could not manage.

Political Pressure - For effective System operation it would be necessary to store Hazard Data pertaining to situations that existed in countries that had governments that did not want to have that information known to its own citizens or to other people around the world, including disaster mitigation officials.  The United Nations is made up of world governments.  And it would undoubtedly be pressured by some governments not to collect, store, or display those types of Hazard Data.

       As a consequence, collecting and storing those types of data might have to be done by other organizations such as disaster mitigation groups or private organizations that could not be influenced by world governments.  However, organizations working within the System Administration would voluntarily observe certain precautionary protocols.  Hazard Data that might be of use to terrorists would not be displayed in public locations.  When possible, Hazard Data that were highly offensive to some government or especially frightening to people living in some country would also not be displayed in public.

Poor Management - Within any organization there are always people who make mistakes.  And errors resulting from the activities of those people would likely be reduced if multiple organizations were involved with efforts to establish agendas for the System, and with efforts to develop System resources.

Corruption - Far too often, within any organization there can be people who are corrupt.  The chances that they could escape detection would likely be reduced if multiple organizations were to help run the System Administration.

Destructive Competition - Human nature being what it is, people will at times try to protect their jobs and sources of income even though that might result in inefficiency within an organization, or even devastating consequences for other people.  Once this proposed System had been established some of the disaster mitigation officials and computer programmers running it might try to establish exclusive control over it.  And people in other organizations and the general public would likely be discouraged from participating in development efforts.  With multiple organizations helping to establish System agendas and resources, internal stagnation and inefficiency resulting from destructive competition should be less likely.


SYSTEM  COSTS

       Once the System was up and running on a global scale, basic yearly operating expenses for this type of global Disaster Warning And Response System would probably run into the several to tens of millions of dollars.  Manpower related expenses would likely represent the bulk of the cost.  It is believed that a single highly destructive earthquake here in the United States could easily claim ten thousand lives and produce more than A HUNDRED BILLION dollars worth of damage.  And so in comparison, a several, to tens of millions of dollars expense for such an extremely powerful disaster warning and response system would have to be regarded as being negligible.

       Finally, the concepts that this proposed System are based on are sufficiently simple that a limited power version of it could have been developed long ago by a group of bright, technically oriented and dedicated high school students who had a good sense of direction.

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