Latest Update: November 5, 2023
The chart below shows what earthquake forecasters often encounter when they try to determine when and where a significant earthquake is going to occur.
With each pattern shown on the chart, the bars having different colors represent the observation times of just a few of the many known earthquake precursors. Just a few precursors were selected for display on the chart to keep things simple.
The # 1 Ideal Precursor Pattern is what earthquake forecasters would like to work with. The other patterns represent what they are usually forced to work with.
The jagged red line on the right side of each pattern shows the time when the earthquake occurred that was associated with that pattern. That makes it possible to compare that pattern's earthquake occurrence time with the times when earthquakes associated with other patterns occurred. In that way it can be seen if an earthquake's occurrence time was accelerated or delayed, for example, by a solar storm.
The # 7 Earthquake And Aftershock pattern cannot be compared with the other patterns as it involves more than one earthquake.
# 1 - Ideal Pattern - That pattern illustrates what earthquake forecasters would like to see before a powerful earthquake occurs.
With that pattern, some precursors would be detected months before the earthquake. And then during a several week period before it occurred a greater variety of and a greater number of precursors would be detected.
Some approaching earthquakes do follow that Ideal type of pattern. And that fact actually helps create, amplify, or prolong the following problem.
Some forecasters seeing that Ideal pattern before one or more earthquakes conclude that they have discovered a reliable method for predicting earthquakes. And they announce that to the general public. But then one or more earthquakes occur that do not follow the Ideal pattern. They aren't accurately predicted. And everyone concludes that the forecasting method being discussed has little value. In fact it might be a highly valuable method but simply provides accurate data for only a certain percentage of our earthquakes.
# s 2A and 2B - Only Certain Types Of Precursors Are Observed - Ideally, a variety of Earthquake Precursors would be observed before every powerful earthquake. They could include electromagnetic signals, radon gas detection, and well water level changes.
Unfortunately, with perhaps many approaching earthquakes, for one reason or another, only one or just a few different types of precursors might be detected. And if forecasters are focused on detecting a specific type of precursor or just a few precursors they might and often do miss the approach of the earthquake.
# 3 - Common Pattern - That pattern could be the most difficult situation to deal with for the following reason.
It has been my personal experience that earthquakes occurring in certain areas or perhaps ones involving certain types of tectonic plate interactions can be especially difficult to predict because there might be relatively few or even no warning signs. Earthquakes occurring in the Central America area such as the two destructive September, 2017 Mexico area earthquakes appear to be good examples of that "lack of data" problem.
# 4 - Rare Pattern - That pattern involves approaching earthquakes that generate warning signs for such a long time that it can be difficult to tell when they are actually going to occur.
As data on this Web page will show, several earthquakes occurring off the West Coast of Chile, South America might have each generated warning signs for many months or even more than a year before they finally occurred.
My data indicate to me that that for a good part of a year before it occurred, the devastating March 11, 2011 magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan also generated certain types of warning signals. The signals were only about 0.25 seconds in duration each and might have been associated with microfractures. They continued to be generated for months after that Japan area earthquake occurred.
# 5 - Earthquake Occurrence Time Acceleration - Data collected by a number of researchers indicate that various phenomena might be causing some earthquakes to occur weeks or months before they would otherwise normally occur.
One such acceleration phenomenon would be a strong solar storm. Some theories propose that the fault zone rock layers can being heated by the solar storm energy and then forced to expand and fracture.
Researchers have proposed that a major hurricane in the vicinity of the earthquake fault zone can accelerate an earthquake's occurrence time. It is possible that the wind and ocean currents add enough strain to the fault zone over a short period of time to cause the earthquake to occur before it would otherwise have occurred.
# 6 - Delayed Earthquakes - My own data suggest to me that when an earthquake is getting ready to occur it might generate some easily detected expected Earthquake Precursor Signals. But then for some reason the earthquake doesn't occur for a lengthy period of time, or perhaps ever!
Those occurrence time delays might be associated with some of the fault zone strain being released as a "Slow Earthquake." Or, tectonic plate movement associated with the changing positions of the sun and the moon in the sky and their associated gravitational pulls on the Earth's crust reduced the strain on the fault zone.
# 7 - Earthquake And Aftershock - That pattern shows the times when Earthquake Precursors might be detected before a powerful earthquake and then again before one of its powerful aftershocks.
Don't Give Up
When faced with the task of having to work with Earthquake Precursors that are not 100% reliable, governments and the international scientific community should not simply take the easy way out and declare that Earthquakes Cant Be Predicted! Medical researchers discovered ways to deal with HIV virus infections (AIDS), something that just a relatively short time ago, many considered would be an impossible task. Governments and members of the international scientific community should learn from those efforts and successes rather than simply Throw in the towel when it comes to forecasting earthquakes. And they should not go into a panic whenever anyone appears in public and states that:
Earthquakes Can Be Predicted !!!